We have already seen that there was an increased mortality in quarter 2 of 2020 by 9.2% over the five-year average and 8.9% over the ten-year average.
The statistics for the third quarter are here:
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticsthirdquarter2020/
It states that deaths fell by 3.4% compared to 2019. If this is measured instead in deaths per head of population, they fell by 4.4%.
Looking at averages, here they are for 2020 and the preceding ten years (deaths per 100,000).
2020: 142.9
2019: 149.5
2018: 147.1
2017: 145.8
2016: 152.5
2015: 147.8
Five-year average: 148.5
Drop in 2020: 3.8%
2014: 151.9
2013: 152
2012: 148.8
2011: 150.6
2010: 145.8
Ten-year average: 149.2
Drop in 2020: 4.2%
Conculsion: There were no excess deaths in quarter three, 2020.
Adding in the data from Q2, deaths per 100,000 are:
2020: 315.3
2019: 302.3
2018: 303.4
2017: 298.4
2016: 317.2
2015: 311
Five-year average: 306.5
Increase in 2020: 2.9%
2014: 308
2013: 318.4
2012: 303.2
2011: 312.9
2010: 300.8
Ten-year average: 307.6
Increase in 2020: 2.5%
Conclusion: Taking Q2 and Q3 together, there were 2.9% more deaths than the five-year average and 2.5% more than the ten-year average in 2020.
Quarter 1 Data:
2020: 176.2
2019: 177.4
2018: 193.6
2017: 194
2016: 185.7
2015: 186.7
Five-year average: 187.5
Decrease in 2020: 6%
2014: 176.6
2013: 182
2012: 174.4
2011: 171.1
2010: 169.6
Ten-year average: 181.1
Decrease in 2020: 2.7%
Conclusion: There were 6% fewer deaths in Q1 2020 based on the five-year average. This was 2.7% based on the ten-year average.
Q1 + Q2 + Q3 Data:
2020: 491.5
2019: 497.7
2018: 497
2017: 492.4
2016: 502.9
2015: 497.7
Five-year average: 497.5
Decrease in 2020: 1.2%
2014: 484.6
2013: 500.4
2012: 477.6
2011: 484
2010: 470.4
Ten-year average: 490.5
Increase in 2020: 0.2%
Conclusion: Based on the five-year average, there were 1.2% fewer deaths in 2020 over the first three quarters. There were 0.2% more deaths based on the ten-year average. There do not seem to be significant excess deaths.
Note: While interesting at a national level, you’re still dead if you die from the illness. National averages don’t state which deaths were avoidable, just that they happened.
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